So, the Irish start the season ranked #17 in the Coaches poll. I could think of worse ways to start a season (#18 comes to mind). With 2014 being the inaugural season for the new College Football Playoff, and the CFB Playoff Committee, I started to wonder about how the Irish might be able to get into the top 4- well at least in the committee’s eyes.
Then, I remembered that this conversation has been talked about on more than a few occasions this past offseason, so I wanted to take a look at something else and see if i could predict a possible record for the Irish in 2014 based solely off of past performance of other teams that started the season ranked #17.
Sounds crazy, I know- but let’s do it anyway. Here is how the preseason #17 team has done over the past decade:
| YEAR | SCHOOL | RECORD | RANKING |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | Auburn | 13-0 | #2 |
| 2005 | Texas A&M | 5-6 | NR |
| 2006 | Iowa | 6-7 | NR |
| 2007 | UCLA | 6-7 | NR |
| 2008 | BYU | 10-3 | #21 |
| 2009 | TCU | 12-1 | #6 |
| 2010 | Georgia Tech | 6-7 | NR |
| 2011 | Michigan St. | 11-3 | NR |
| 2012 | TCU | 7-6 | NR |
| 2013 | Michigan | 7-6 | NR |
That’s a fairly wide assortment of results. Using this data, one could predict anything from UNDEFEATED to 6-7. YIKES! Even more disturbing is there is a pattern being formed, and the 2014 team looks like it is heading towards a 7-6 season with some other lucky bastard starting the 2015 season ranked #17 and then going undefeated.
Of course, you can change the pattern if you like and we could be sitting on the other end of the spectrum. At any rate, I’m prepared to offer this prediction for 2014 based off of this data
2014 NOTRE DAME 12-2 #2
The Irish win their opening playoff game, but lose in the title game. FIRE EVRYONE. It’s science.
