#5 Notre Dame (7-0) v. #8 Oklahoma (5-1)
Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – Norman, OK – 8:00 PM EST on ABC
First Things – Notre Dame CAN win this game and it wouldn't be shocking to those paying attention to the details if they went ahead and did it. The Irish are causing turnovers and limiting big plays on defense. On the offensive side, a vanilla playbook and game plans have done what has needed to be accomplished and not a much else. The most telling aspect of the Irish wins have been their dominance and focus in the 2nd half over the past month of football. Under Brian Kelly, Bob Diaco and the leadership of Manti Te'o, Tyler Eifert, Zack Martin and many others – Notre Dame has consistently showed as the superior 2nd half team in reference to game-plan, focus, conditioning and intensity. With all the 4th quarter slugfests partaken by the Irish thus far, have the fans once been found complaining, "They look tired…"? Absolutely not. Attributes of a growing power in South Bend are tricking out of all facets of the program and a few positive bounces and calls find the Irish at 7-0 heading towards a collision of superpowers this Saturday night in Norman, Oklahoma. The Irish may not leave Oklahoma with a win, but if it comes to pass those of us who've been observing the transformation under the Golden Dome will be ecstatic, but not surprised.
Las Vegas opened the line of this game at Oklahoma (-9) and heavy betting caused a rise to the current OU (-11.5) and I still don't think it's as much indicative of Vegas's thoughts on the Irish as much as the feelings of America in general. Let's be honest – the majority of America wants to see the Irish stink and would prefer to deny the existence of greatness in Northern Indiana for as long as possible. They are free to forget that OU has 11 losses with the Bob Stoops-Landry Jones combination and 4 of those were against unranked opponents. I find these numbers much more indicative than ND's 8-1 all-time record against the Sooners. Jarious Jackson was hooking up with Joey Getherall the last time ND brought down an OU squad and The Real World was still relevant in pop culture. Some things have changed since that afternoon in 1999 and nowhere is that more evident than in South Bend. This team is different and it's more than the helmets. The Irish will 100% cover this spread Saturday. Mark it down.
If you ask five Irish fans what the "Key To The Game" in an Irish victory might be you'll get 5 different answers about 10 different players. There isn't a "key" to beating top teams on the road. Nearly every Irish player needs to have one of the best games of his career and that still might not be enough this week if the breaks are beating the boys. As outlined in my earlier post this week – an old school philosophy tailored to the strength of the 2012 ND team could lead to the Irish continuing their march on the BCS Bowls. When Oklahoma loses they have been outrushed and lost the turnover battle. The Irish can pound the ball on the Sooners and they could very well win the turnover battle. I'm counting those stats as the "Keys To An Irish Win" over how effective Everett Golson is on the whole and if Landry Jones can find a rhythm.
Five Things To Watch
5. Punch Landry Jones In The Mouth – One time in a big high school game our opponents lined up on the first play from scrimmage and intentionally the entire defensive line jumped offsides and blasted four linemen into the backfield. For the record, nobody ever blasted me in high school on any play. It was pretty clear the coach had instructed them to "send a message" to us from the start. Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones, for all his praise, is a turnover prone player with a history of folding under defensive pressure. Jones has 44 career interceptions in just 3.5 seasons of play. I mention my story because it wouldn't surprise me if the Irish send an extra blitzer on play one or two with a direct order to "get a shot" on Landry. Certainly nothing dirty, but the kind of directive with a nudge/wink that a personal foul penalty that occurs on 1st down with OU deep in it's own territory won't be a punishable offense. The Irish need to rattle Jones in any way possible and prevent him from finding any rhythm whatsoever.
4. ND Screen Game – Running back screens are a part of this Brian Kelly offense – we just haven't seen them. OU's front seven isn't as acclaimed as some recent editions, but as a unit they are strong across the board. This game seems an opportune time to dust these plays off and make some attempts at slowing down the front seven and getting Cierre Wood, Theo Riddick and/or George Atkinson in space.
3. Louis Nix III – Our 340 lb defensive tackle has been as vital to the success of the defense as any player in a golden dome. Landry Jones has zero rushing attempts in 2012 and Nix's ability to push the center of the offensive line into his face and into the waiting arms of Tuitt, Shembo and their pals could prove the difference in 300 yards/3 TDs & 200 yards/2 INTs for the Sooner's signal caller.
2. Manti Te'o Heisman Moment – In each of the Irish's biggest games in 2012, there has been All-Galaxy middle linebacker Manti Te'o. The Irish may not need to win to keep him in the conversation for an invite to New York, but they can't get blown out. The offseason weight loss has allowed him to get into much better position on pass drops and we continue to see #5 in great spots to make plays. For this week, even with Landry Jones, his chance to shine may come via a collision with OU's goal line rushing QB Blake "The Belldozer" Bell. A key play near the scoring stripe with gold flakes flying in the stadium lights is just what the doctor ordered for the ever important Heisman publicity reel and likely an Irish win.
1. Committing To The Run – Can Brian Kelly stick with the run early if it's not working? Can he go away from what seems like an instinct to drop back and sling it while the defense keeps it close? Can a team that has outrushed their past three opponents by 499 yards stay the course and wear out a Top 20 defense down the game's stretch? I believe that conservatism on offense and a plan of attack which has been the offenses strength thus far would make sense and open up the passing lanes in the 2nd half as more players commit to the run. Well, that's just this guys' take.
Predicting The Game & What We'll See
Still haven't come close to a correct prediction so far. This is a tough game to gage. The Irish just can't fall behind early because the they just don't have enough cylinders clicking on offense to mount a comeback on the road. Golson can't turn the ball over. I don't believe the online rhetoric that "he has to have a HUGE game" for ND to win, but he can't play like he did against Stanford where the rock was falling out of his hands way too often. A few nice plays and a game-plan that sets him up for success throughout is what I'm looking for from the growing sophomore. Defensively it may be blind ambition, but I honestly see the front seven causing problems for the Sooners early and enough to stall drives and keep Notre Dame in the game. If the script of the 2012 season holds true – Notre Dame will grab a small lead in the 4th quarter and hang on for dear life to the everlasting fear of Blue & Gold fans everywhere. As they've done all season, the Irish get it done when it matters most.
